Learn how to bet on weather events like temperature, rainfall, and hurricanes using Kalshi and Polymarket. Discover the basics and boost your strategy with Wethr.net.
Get StartedWeather betting is a form of prediction market where participants wager on the outcomes of weather-related events, such as high temperatures, rainfall amounts, hurricane occurrences, or snowfall totals. Unlike traditional sports betting, weather betting relies on meteorological data and forecasts, making it accessible to anyone with an interest in weather patterns.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer these markets, allowing users to buy and sell contracts based on weather predictions. For example, you might bet on whether New York City’s high temperature will exceed 90°F tomorrow or if Florida will see a hurricane in September.
To make informed bets, bettors often rely on real-time and historical weather data. Wethr.net provides valuable tools and forecasts to analyze trends and improve your betting accuracy.
Weather betting emerged as a niche market within prediction platforms, gaining traction during the early 2000s when online betting expanded. Its popularity surged during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), when traditional sports betting was disrupted due to canceled events. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket capitalized on this gap, offering weather markets as an alternative.
Kalshi, launched in 2021, became the first regulated US exchange for event contracts, including weather markets settled with official data from NOAA and the National Weather Service. Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, offered more speculative weather markets, attracting global users. Today, weather betting is a growing segment, appealing to both casual bettors and professionals hedging against weather risks.
Weather derivatives introduced in financial markets, laying the groundwork for retail betting.
COVID-19 boosts interest in non-sports betting, including weather markets.
Kalshi launches regulated weather markets; Polymarket expands crypto-based options.
Weather betting grows as a mainstream betting category, driven by climate awareness.
Weather betting operates through prediction markets, where contracts are priced between $0 and $1 based on the likelihood of an outcome. If you believe an event will occur (e.g., “It will rain in Chicago tomorrow”), you buy a “Yes” contract. If correct, you earn $1 per contract; if wrong, you lose your investment.
To succeed, bettors analyze weather forecasts and historical data. Wethr.net offers real-time forecasts and historical weather records to help you make data-driven decisions.
On Kalshi, a contract asks, “Will Miami’s high temperature exceed 85°F on May 10, 2025?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.60, implying a 60% chance. You buy 10 contracts for $6. If the temperature hits 86°F, you earn $10 (a $4 profit). If it’s 84°F, you lose $6.
Both platforms offer weather betting, but they cater to different users. Here’s a comparison:
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Regulated by CFTC (US) | Decentralized, less regulated |
| Currency | USD (fiat) | USDC (crypto) |
| Markets | Temperature, hurricanes, rainfall | Temperature, storms, speculative climate |
| Fees | 1% trading, 10% settlement, 2% withdrawal | No trading fees, 1.5% withdrawal |
| Accessibility | US users, strict KYC | Global users, wallet-based |
Choose Kalshi for a regulated experience or Polymarket for crypto flexibility. Both benefit from weather data at Wethr.net.
Dive into weather betting with Kalshi or Polymarket, and use Wethr.net for the latest weather insights.
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