Bet on Climate & Long-Term Markets

What Are Climate & Long-Term Markets?

Climate and long-term markets allow you to bet on extended weather and environmental outcomes, such as global temperature increases, carbon emissions targets, or renewable energy adoption. Offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, these markets typically span months to years, appealing to bettors interested in climate trends and policy impacts.

For example, you might bet on whether the global average temperature will rise by 1°C by 2030 or if the US will meet a 2035 emissions goal. To inform your bets, use climate trend data and forecasts from Wethr.net.

Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market platform, offers long-term climate markets settled using official data from sources like NOAA, NASA, or the IPCC. These markets focus on measurable climate indicators, often tied to US or global policies.

• Long-Term Markets: Bet on outcomes like “Will the global temperature anomaly exceed +1.5°C by 2030?” or “Will US carbon emissions drop below 5 billion metric tons by 2035?”
• Data Source: Contracts resolve based on verified data from NOAA, NASA, or government reports, ensuring transparency.
• Bet Limits: Up to $25,000 per contract, with fees of 1% (trading), 10% (settlement), and 2% (withdrawal).

Example: A Kalshi contract asks, “Will the US meet its 2030 emissions target of 50% reduction from 2005 levels?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.45. You buy 100 contracts for $45. If the target is met, you earn $100 ($55 profit). If not, you lose $45.

Analyze climate trends on Wethr.net to guide your Kalshi bets.

Betting on Polymarket

Polymarket, a crypto-based decentralized platform, offers long-term climate markets with global accessibility and speculative options. Contracts are priced in USDC and settled using data from NOAA, IPCC, or other reputable sources.

• Long-Term Markets: Bet on outcomes like “Will global renewable energy reach 40% of total energy by 2035?” or “Will Arctic sea ice minimum fall below 4 million km² in 2030?”
• Speculative Options: Includes markets driven by public interest, such as climate policy outcomes or extreme weather trends.
• Fees: No trading fees, but a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies.

Example: A Polymarket contract asks, “Will global temperature rise by 1°C by 2032?” You buy 50 “Yes” contracts at $0.70 each ($35 total). If the temperature rises, you earn $50 ($15 profit).

Use Wethr.net for global climate data and forecasts.

Tips for Climate Betting

Long-term climate betting requires understanding global trends and policy developments. Here are some tips:

Access Climate Data

Use Wethr.net to explore climate trends and forecasts for informed betting.

Betting Calculator

Calculate potential profits for a climate bet based on contract price and quantity.