Bet on Hurricanes & Storms

What Are Hurricane & Storm Markets?

Hurricane and storm markets let you bet on weather events like tropical storms, hurricanes, and their impacts, such as landfalls or seasonal frequency. These markets, offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, range from daily bets (e.g., will a hurricane make landfall today?) to monthly or seasonal bets (e.g., how many hurricanes will occur in August?).

These high-stakes markets appeal to bettors and those hedging against weather risks, such as coastal businesses. Use Wethr.net to track storms and analyze forecasts for better betting decisions.

Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market platform, offers hurricane and storm markets settled using data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA. Markets cover both daily and monthly events, focusing on US impacts.

• Daily Markets: Bet on specific storm events, like “Will a named hurricane make landfall in Florida on May 6, 2025?”
• Monthly/Seasonal Markets: Predict the number of hurricanes or tropical storms in a month or season (e.g., “Will there be 3+ hurricanes in August 2025?”).
• Bet Limits: Up to $25,000 per contract. Taker orders incur a transaction fee (0.07%–7% of expected earnings, based on contract price), maker orders are free, and withdrawals incur a $2 ACH fee. See Kalshi’s fee schedule.

Example: A Kalshi contract asks, “Will a hurricane hit the US Gulf Coast on May 7, 2025?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.40. You buy 200 contracts for $80. If a hurricane makes landfall, you earn $200 ($120 profit). If not, you lose $80.

Track storms in real-time on Wethr.net to guide your Kalshi bets.

Betting on Polymarket

Polymarket, a crypto-based decentralized platform, offers hurricane and storm markets with global reach. Contracts are priced in USDC and settled using NHC or NOAA data, often with more speculative options.

• Daily Markets: Bet on storm-specific outcomes, like “Will a tropical storm form in the Atlantic on May 8, 2025?”
• Monthly/Seasonal Markets: Wager on hurricane counts or intensities (e.g., “Will 5+ named storms occur in September 2025?”).
• Fees: No trading fees, but a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies.

Example: A Polymarket contract asks, “Will 2+ hurricanes form in June 2025?” You buy 100 “Yes” contracts at $0.50 each ($50 total). If two hurricanes form, you earn $100 ($50 profit).

Use Wethr.net for global storm tracking and forecasts.

Tips for Hurricane Betting

Hurricane betting requires tracking storm paths and understanding NHC data. Here are some tips:

Track Hurricanes & Storms

Use Wethr.net to monitor active storms and forecast potential landfalls.

Betting Calculator

Calculate potential profits for a hurricane or storm bet based on contract price and quantity.