Bet on Daily High Temperature Markets

What Are High Temperature Markets?

High temperature markets let you bet on whether the daily high temperature in a specific city will exceed, meet, or fall below a certain threshold. These daily markets are popular on Kalshi and Polymarket due to their simplicity and reliance on widely available weather data from sources like the National Weather Service (NWS).

For example, you might bet on whether New York City’s high temperature will exceed 90°F tomorrow or if Miami’s high will surpass 85°F today. To make informed bets, check real-time forecasts and historical trends at Wethr.net.

[](https://help.kalshi.com/markets/popular-markets/weather-markets)

Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market platform, offers daily high temperature markets for major cities like New York (KNYC station in Central Park), Austin, Miami, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These markets are settled using the NWS Daily Climate Report, released the following morning, ensuring transparency.

[](https://help.kalshi.com/markets/popular-markets/weather-markets)[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/1hfvnmj/an_incomplete_and_unofficial_guide_to_temperature/?rdt=48131)

• Daily Markets: Bet on whether a city’s high temperature will fall within a specific range (e.g., “Will NYC’s high be 62–63°F on May 2, 2025?”).
• Data Source: Contracts resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at a specific NWS station, avoiding rounding errors from Celsius conversions.
[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/1hfvnmj/an_incomplete_and_unofficial_guide_to_temperature/?rdt=48131)
• Bet Limits: Up to $25,000 per contract, with fees of 1% (trading), 10% (settlement), and 2% (withdrawal).

Example: A Kalshi contract asks, “Will Miami’s high exceed 85°F on May 2, 2025?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.70. You buy 100 contracts for $70. If the high is 86°F, you earn $100 ($30 profit). If it’s 84°F, you lose $70.

Use Wethr.net to check Miami’s forecast before betting.

Betting on Polymarket

Polymarket, a crypto-based decentralized platform, offers daily high temperature markets with global access and flexibility. Contracts are settled using similar data sources (e.g., NOAA or NWS) but are priced in USDC, a stablecoin.

• Global Reach: Bet on daily highs in international cities, not just US hubs.
• Market Variety: Includes unique daily temperature bets driven by social media trends.
• Fees: No trading fees, but a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies.

Example: A Polymarket contract asks, “Will London’s high exceed 25°C on May 3, 2025?” You buy 50 “Yes” contracts at $0.55 each ($27.50 total). If the high is 26°C, you earn $50 ($22.50 profit).

Check international forecasts on Wethr.net to inform your Polymarket bets.

Tips for Temperature Betting

Betting on daily temperatures requires understanding NWS data and weather patterns. Here are some tips:

[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/1hfvnmj/an_incomplete_and_unofficial_guide_to_temperature/?rdt=48131)

Check City Forecasts

Select a city to view forecast data on Wethr.net and inform your temperature bets.

Select a city New York, NY Miami, FL Chicago, IL Austin, TX Los Angeles, CA View Forecast

Betting Calculator

Calculate potential profits for a daily temperature bet based on contract price and quantity.