Bet on Tornado Markets

What Are Tornado Markets?

Tornado markets allow you to bet on the occurrence or frequency of tornadoes, either on a specific day or over a month. Offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, these markets focus on regions prone to tornadoes, like the US Midwest and South. They appeal to weather enthusiasts and bettors tracking severe weather events.

Daily markets might ask if a tornado will occur in Oklahoma on a given day, while monthly markets predict the number of tornadoes in a region. Use Wethr.net for real-time tornado alerts and historical data to inform your bets.

Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market platform, offers tornado markets settled using data from the National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Markets cover both daily and monthly tornado events, primarily in the US.

• Daily Markets: Bet on whether a tornado will occur in a specific region (e.g., “Will a tornado hit Oklahoma on May 8, 2025?”).
• Monthly Markets: Predict the number of tornadoes in a month (e.g., “Will there be 10+ tornadoes in the Midwest in May 2025?”).
• Bet Limits: Up to $25,000 per contract. Taker orders incur a transaction fee (0.07%–7% of expected earnings, based on contract price), maker orders are free, and withdrawals incur a $2 ACH fee. See Kalshi’s fee schedule.

Example: A Kalshi contract asks, “Will a tornado occur in Kansas on May 9, 2025?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.55. You buy 100 contracts for $55. If a tornado is reported, you earn $100 ($45 profit). If not, you lose $55.

Check tornado alerts on Wethr.net to guide your Kalshi bets.

Betting on Polymarket

Polymarket, a crypto-based decentralized platform, offers tornado markets with global accessibility. Contracts are priced in USDC and settled using NWS or SPC data, often with speculative monthly options.

• Daily Markets: Bet on tornado occurrences in specific regions (e.g., “Will a tornado form in Texas on May 10, 2025?”).
• Monthly Markets: Wager on tornado counts or severity (e.g., “Will 15+ tornadoes occur in the US in June 2025?”).
• Fees: No trading fees, but a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies.

Example: A Polymarket contract asks, “Will 12+ tornadoes occur in May 2025?” You buy 50 “Yes” contracts at $0.60 each ($30 total). If 12 tornadoes are recorded, you earn $50 ($20 profit).

Use Wethr.net for tornado forecasts and historical data.

Tips for Tornado Betting

Tornado betting requires monitoring severe weather patterns and SPC data. Here are some tips:

Check Tornado Alerts

Stay updated on active tornado watches and warnings with Wethr.net.

Betting Calculator

Calculate potential profits for a tornado bet based on contract price and quantity.